Source: Pentagon’s 2025 Annual Report to Congress on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China.
China is employing a “dual-track strategy” to stabilize its relations with India while simultaneously hindering a stronger strategic alignment between India and the US. This strategy involves de-escalating border tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) while deepening military cooperation with Pakistan.
China’s Dual-Track Strategy and its Implications
- Dual-Track Approach: Beijing aims to stabilize bilateral relations with India through de-escalation efforts along the LAC, creating a facade of normalcy. Concurrently, China is significantly deepening its military cooperation with Pakistan.
- Strategic Hedging: This two-pronged approach allows China to manage its western front with India while bolstering Pakistan, creating a strategic hedge against Indian power and discouraging deeper Pentagon China India US ties.
Military Cooperation with Pakistan
- China is a consistent supplier of advanced weaponry to Pakistan, including frigates and combat aircraft.
- As of May 2025, China had delivered 20 units of the J-10C fighter jet to Pakistan, making it the sole recipient outside China.
- Co-production of JF-17 light combat aircraft continues, alongside supplies of strike-capable Caihong and Wing Loong unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
- China is projected to expand its naval export market over the next five years, with Pakistan remaining a key customer.
- Beijing is exploring military basing and logistics facilities in countries like Pakistan, potentially extending the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) reach closer to India’s borders.
Persistent Distrust and Core Interests
- Trust Deficit: Despite recent de-escalation and high-level dialogues, a significant trust deficit persists between India and China, influenced by past border confrontations like the Galwan Valley clashes in June 2020.
- India’s Skepticism: India “probably remains skeptical of China’s actions and motives,” with “continued mutual distrust and other irritants almost certainly limit the bilateral relationship.”
Arunachal Pradesh as a ‘Core Interest’
- China asserts territorial claims over India’s northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, referring to it as “Zangnan.”
- China’s leadership has designated Arunachal Pradesh as a “core interest,” placing it in the same non-negotiable category as Taiwan and the South China Sea.
- This designation challenges India’s sovereignty and deepens mistrust, signaling a hardening stance on territorial issues.
- China’s Western Theatre Command conducted high-altitude exercises in 2024, indicating sustained preparation for mountain warfare scenarios, irrespective of diplomatic overtures.
De-escalation Efforts and Lingering Skepticism
- October 2024 Agreement: India and China announced an agreement to disengage from remaining standoff points in eastern Ladakh.
- BRICS Summit Meeting: This agreement preceded a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, their first formal interaction since the 2020 skirmishes.
- Monthly Engagements: The meeting initiated monthly high-level engagements to discuss border management, improve bilateral relations, and resume direct flights, visa facilitation, and exchanges of academics and journalists.
- China’s Strategic Intent: The Pentagon views these de-escalation efforts as part of China’s strategy to stabilize ties with New Delhi and prevent a deeper India-US strategic alignment. India, while welcoming de-escalation, remains wary of Beijing’s long-term intentions due to continued territorial assertions and military build-up.
The US-India Alignment and External Pressures
- Strategic Counterweight: The US views India as a crucial counterweight to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.
- Deepening Defense Partnership: The US-India defense partnership, characterized by joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and technological cooperation, has bipartisan support in both countries, driven by shared interests in a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Challenges to Alignment
- Trade Friction: Former US President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” and additional levies for India’s purchase of Russian oil have created friction.
- Mediation Claims: Trump’s claims of mediating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan have complicated diplomatic efforts and introduced unpredictability.
- These external pressures and policy divergences can test the resilience of the US-India strategic alignment.
Conclusion
The Pentagon’s 2025 report highlights the complex geopolitical maneuvering in the Indo-Pacific. China’s dual-track strategy aims to manage its periphery and influence the strategic environment. Navigating these complexities requires persistent diplomatic engagement, robust defense cooperation, and a clear understanding of China’s long-term objectives for regional stability.
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