As November 2025 approaches, the political temperature in Bihar is soaring, with the upcoming Assembly elections poised to be a high-stakes battle. Numerous agencies have released their Bihar election opinion polls, offering a glimpse into public sentiment and potential outcomes. From the dominant National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to the formidable Mahagathbandhan (also known as the INDIA bloc) and the rising Jan Suraaj Party, the projections indicate a fiercely contested election that could redefine the state’s political landscape. This blog post delves into the latest findings, analyzing seat shares, vote percentages, and the preferred CM face to bring you a comprehensive overview of the Bihar Assembly elections 2025.
The High Stakes of Bihar’s Political Arena
The political scene in Bihar is a complex tapestry of alliances, historical rivalries, and evolving voter demographics. The incumbent NDA, spearheaded by Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is striving to retain power. Challenging them is the Mahagathbandhan, or INDIA bloc, primarily comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Indian National Congress (INC). Adding a significant new dimension is the Jan Suraaj Party, led by political strategist Prashant Kishor, which is emerging as a considerable third force. These trending keywords capture the essence of a state where political dynamics are always in flux, making opinion polls crucial for understanding the undercurrents.
Seat Projections: A Tight Race for Majority
Different agencies offer varied seat projections for the 243-member Bihar Assembly, yet a common thread highlights a competitive election. The JVC Poll, as of November 1, 2025, projects the JD(U)-led NDA to secure 120-140 seats, narrowly crossing the majority mark. The Mahagathbandhan is predicted to win 93-112 seats. Delving deeper, the BJP is expected to be the largest single party within the NDA, with 70-81 seats, while the JD(U) follows with 42-48. For the INDIA bloc, the RJD could claim 69-78 seats, and Congress 9-17.
In contrast, the IANS-Matrize Poll (October 6, 2025) provides a more commanding lead for the NDA, forecasting 150-160 seats. This survey projects BJP with 80-85 seats and JD(U) with 60-65. The Indi Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) is forecasted to secure 70-85 seats, with RJD contributing 60-65 seats and Congress 7-10. The Dainik Bhaskar Phase 1 Opinion Poll also shows the NDA leading with 76-78 seats out of 121 in the initial phase, indicating a strong start for the alliance. These figures underscore the dynamic nature of these Bihar election opinion polls and the challenges in predicting a clear winner.
Vote Share Analysis and Emerging Trends
Beyond seat counts, vote share projections provide critical insights into public sentiment. The JVC pre-poll survey estimates the NDA’s vote share at 41%-43%, just ahead of the Mahagathbandhan’s 39%-41%. The IANS-Matrize survey, however, projects a more substantial lead for the NDA with 49% of the total votes, compared to the Opposition bloc’s 36%. The VoteVibe Survey, as of October 8, 2025, signals an “extremely close contest,” with the NDA marginally leading at 41.3% and the Mahagathbandhan at 39.7%, highlighting a narrowing gap.
A notable trend is the rising influence of the Jan Suraaj Party, which might attract 6%-7% of the vote share according to JVC, and 7% according to IANS-Matrize. VoteVibe records its support climbing from 9.1% to 12.3%, suggesting a consolidation among anti-establishment and youth-oriented voters. This party is seen by some as a vote-splitter (56.3% of respondents) and by others as a potential kingmaker (15.8%). Furthermore, strong anti-incumbency sentiment is evident, with only 29.7% of voters willing to re-elect their current MLA, while 54.9% would not. These factors indicate a fluid electoral landscape, heavily influenced by voter motivations beyond traditional party lines.
The Race for Chief Minister: Popularity Contest
The question of who will be the next Chief Minister of Bihar remains a central point of interest, with varying preferences across different polls. According to the JVC poll, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav emerges as the most preferred Chief Ministerial candidate with 33% support. Incumbent CM Nitish Kumar follows with 29%, while Chirag Paswan and Prashant Kishor each garner 10%.
In contrast, the IANS-Matrize survey positions Nitish Kumar as the top CM choice with 42% support, significantly ahead of Tejashwi Yadav at 15%. Prashant Kishor receives 9%, and Chirag Paswan 8%. The C Voter poll aligns more with JVC, showing Tejashwi Yadav as the most popular face with 36.5% support, followed by Prashant Kishor (23.2%) and Nitish Kumar (15.9%). Lastly, the NewsX Opinion Poll on Platform X (October 6, 2025) reported Nitish Kumar with 46% support, Prashant Kishor with 24%, and Tejashwi Yadav with 16%. These fluctuations in preferred CM face highlight the diverse perceptions of leadership and the impact of individual agency on voter choices.
Electoral Dynamics: 2020 Context and 2025 Revisions
To fully understand the current Bihar Assembly elections 2025 projections, it’s crucial to consider the historical context of the 2020 Bihar Assembly Election Results. In 2020, the NDA alliance secured 125 seats (BJP 74, JD(U) 43), while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110 seats (RJD 75, Congress 19, Left parties 16). Despite near-equal vote shares, the NDA narrowly clinched victory, underscoring the importance of seat distribution and alliance arithmetic.
For the upcoming 2025 elections, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has announced a two-phase election on November 6 and 11, with vote counting on November 14. A significant development has been the updated electoral roll, which lists 7.42 crore voters, a reduction from 7.89 crore earlier in the year. This reduction of about 65 lakh inactive names following a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) could have unforeseen impacts on voter turnout and overall results, influencing regional outcomes and the final Bihar election opinion polls.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Election for Bihar
The Bihar Assembly elections 2025 are shaping up to be a defining moment for the state. While most Bihar election opinion polls give the NDA an edge, the consistent popularity of Tejashwi Yadav as a preferred CM face and the emergence of the Jan Suraaj Party as a significant contender underscore the competitive and unpredictable nature of the contest. Factors like pervasive anti-incumbency sentiment, evolving vote share dynamics, and meticulous electoral roll revisions will all play crucial roles. As the campaign intensifies, Bihar’s over 70 million voters will ultimately decide whether to continue with the current alliance or opt for a new direction. The results will not only determine the state’s leadership but also reflect broader trending keywords in Indian politics: the interplay of traditional powerhouses, new political forces, and the enduring power of democratic participation.
What are your predictions for the Bihar Election 2025? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
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