Back-to-back PSLV Failures and Their Implications
The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) faces its most significant challenge yet with two consecutive PSLV failures, impacting its reputation and India’s space ambitions.
Introduction
The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and its Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), historically known for reliability and cost-effectiveness, are facing their most significant challenge due to two consecutive failures: PSLV-C61 in May 2025 and PSLV-C62 in January 2026. These failures, particularly the loss of crucial strategic payloads from the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), have prompted intense introspection within ISRO and raised concerns about systemic issues, impacting ISRO’s reputation and India’s space ambitions.
The PSLV’s Illustrious Past and Recent Reliability Concerns
Prior to these setbacks, the PSLV had a remarkable track record with a success rate exceeding 90% (or 94% including partial successes) across 63 launches since its 1993 debut. It was a preferred vehicle for deploying Earth observation, remote sensing, and communication satellites, enabling ISRO’s commercial arm, NewSpace India Limited (NSIL), to secure a significant share of the international small satellite launch market. The recent failures are therefore particularly perplexing and alarming.
PSLV-C61 Failure
(May 18, 2025)
- Payload: Earth Observation Satellite-09 (EOS-09), a strategic synthetic aperture radar satellite.
- Anomaly: Unforeseen anomaly in the third stage, characterized by a sudden and unexpected drop in combustion chamber pressure within the solid motor, leading to a loss of thrust.
- Outcome: Failure to reach intended orbit and loss of EOS-09, a significant strategic setback.
- Investigation: ISRO launched a Failure Analysis Committee (FAC) investigation, whose report, submitted in August 2025, was not publicly disclosed, deviating from ISRO’s usual transparency.
PSLV-C62 Failure
(January 12, 2026)
- Payloads: 16 satellites, including DRDO’s strategic EOS-N1 (Anvesha), and international payloads.
- Anomaly: A ‘roll rate disturbance’ and deviation from the planned flight path following an apparent cut-off in the third stage, indicating uncontrollable spinning.
- Outcome: Complete loss of all 16 satellites.
- Connection to C61: Experts noted strong parallels, suggesting a similar underlying issue with the third-stage solid motor.
- Peculiar Detail: A Spanish satellite, KID, unexpectedly survived the initial failure and transmitted data for approximately three minutes.
- Impact: Twin failures, affecting the same critical stage and involving strategic defense assets, intensified scrutiny.
Technical Challenges and Potential Root Causes
Analyzing the Anomalies:
- PSLV-C61: Drop in combustion chamber pressure.
- PSLV-C62: ‘Roll rate disturbance’ and deviation from flight path.
- Commonality: Both point to critical issues with the third stage (PS3).
Potential Technical Culprits:
- Manufacturing Defects
- Nozzle Malfunctions
- Structural Integrity Issues
- Lapses in Quality Control
- Propellant Anomalies
Transparency Concerns: The non-disclosure of the PSLV-C61 FAC report has fueled criticism and speculation about whether lessons from the first failure were adequately addressed. This lack of transparency has eroded trust domestically and internationally.
Sabotage Theories and Counterarguments
Sabotage Speculations:
- GPS Spoofing
- Telemetry Corruption
- Software-Triggered Malfunctions
- Internal Sabotage/Espionage
‘Space is Hard’ Counterpoint:
Seasoned professionals emphasize the inherent complexities of spaceflight, where mechanical failures, material fatigue, or unforeseen interactions can lead to catastrophic outcomes, cautioning against premature attribution to malicious intent.
Official Stance vs. Public Discourse: These theories are speculative and not official findings. Official investigations focus on technical causes. The lack of public disclosure for failure reports creates an information vacuum where such narratives can proliferate.
Ripple Effect on India’s Space Ambitions
Erosion of Global Reputation
Tarnished image of the PSLV as a dependable launcher, unsettling clients and strategic planners.
Significant Financial Fallout
Estimated $200-$250 million loss for PSLV-C62 alone. Anticipated 20-30% jump in insurance premiums.
Commercial Setbacks for NSIL
Grounding of PSLV missions creates backlog and risks deterring future international customers.
Setback for India’s Private Space Sector
Startups face financial losses and project delays, potentially impacting investor confidence.
Grave Strategic Implications
Loss of DRDO’s strategic Earth observation satellites creates a critical gap in national security.
Addressing Transparency and Accountability
Departure from releasing FAC reports draws criticism and raises concerns about quality control.
Charting the Future: Rebuilding Trust
- Transparent Root Cause Analysis: Conduct thorough, unbiased, and transparent investigations into both failures, disclosing findings publicly.
- Swift Corrective Measures: Implement robust and comprehensive corrective actions, re-validating all critical systems, especially the third stage.
- Enhanced Quality Control: Re-evaluate and strengthen manufacturing protocols, including advanced non-destructive testing and rigorous component qualification.
- Reasserting Transparency: Publicly share failure analyses, corrective actions, and ongoing progress to rebuild public and international confidence.
- Innovating for Resilience: Explore alternative designs, incorporate redundancy in critical systems, and enhance telemetry capabilities for early anomaly detection.
- Comprehensive Review of PSLV Designs: Undertake a review of existing launch vehicle designs for modernization and upgrades.
Conclusion
The back-to-back PSLV failures represent a critical inflection point for India’s space program, impacting national security, commercial viability, and global standing. ISRO must conduct exhaustive, transparent analyses, communicate findings openly, and implement decisive corrective actions. Rebuilding trust requires resilience, transparency, and a renewed commitment to engineering excellence, including enhanced quality assurance and a proactive strategy to reassure partners and investors. Overcoming these setbacks will be crucial for India to reinforce its position as a trustworthy and formidable force in the global space market.
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