A Comprehensive Analysis of Recent and Upcoming Electoral Trends in the Volunteer State
This document summarizes recent and upcoming election results in Tennessee, analyzing the state’s political landscape and election trends. It covers the December 2025 Special Election, the 2024 US Presidential Election, the 2022 midterm elections, the role of the Secretary of State, and previews the 2026 elections.
December 2025 Special Election: Republican Hold in 7th Congressional District
A special general election for the 7th Congressional District was held on December 2, 2025. Republican Matt Van Epps won the seat vacated by former Representative Mark Green. Van Epps, backed by former President Donald Trump, secured 53.91% (96,988 votes) against Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn’s 45.05% (81,044 votes), resulting in an 8.9% margin of victory.
Despite the clear Republican win, Democrats overperformed their 2024 district results by 12.6%, marking their strongest showing in the district in the 21st century. Voter turnout was lower than in previous elections. The 7th Congressional District is a reliably Republican stronghold, with Donald Trump carrying it by substantial margins in 2020 and the 2024 US Presidential Election. Primary elections were held on October 7, 2025, where Van Epps and Behn secured their party nominations.
Analyzing the 2024 Presidential Election in Tennessee
The 2024 US Presidential Election on November 5, 2024, solidified Tennessee’s Republican lean, casting its 11 electoral votes for Donald Trump. Trump won Tennessee by a commanding 29.7% margin, garnering over 1.96 million votes — a new record for any candidate in Tennessee’s history.
This marks Donald Trump’s third consecutive presidential victory in Tennessee, continuing a trend of Republican presidential wins in the state since 2000. It underscores the strong conservative base and consistent support for Republican presidential candidates. Primary elections were held on March 5, 2024 (Super Tuesday), where Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and Joe Biden won the Democratic primary (though he later withdrew and endorsed Kamala Harris).
The 2022 Midterm Elections: Shifts in State and Federal Representation
The 2022 midterm elections, held on November 8, 2022, brought significant changes to Tennessee’s representation at state and federal levels, highlighting important election trends.
Gubernatorial Election: Governor Lee’s Re-election
- Incumbent: Republican Governor Bill Lee.
- Outcome: Re-elected for a second term.
- Challenger: Dr. Jason Martin (Democratic).
- Vote Breakdown: Governor Lee secured 65.3% of the vote.
- Voter Turnout: 38.61% of registered voters (a slight decrease from 2018).
U.S. House of Representatives Elections: An Even Stronger Republican Delegation
- Contested Seats: All nine U.S. congressional seats.
- Outcome: Following redistricting, Republicans gained one seat.
- Delegation Split: 8 Republican and 1 Democrat.
- Analysis: This represents the fewest Democrats sent to Congress by Tennessee since the 41st Congress during Reconstruction, further cementing Republican dominance.
State Legislature Elections: Republican Gains
- Outcome: Republicans gained two seats in the State House.
- Partisan Breakdown:
- State House: 75 Republicans, 25 Democrats.
- State Senate: 27 Republicans, 6 Democrats.
- Notable Aspect: Over half of the state legislative races had only one candidate, indicating a lack of competitiveness in many races.
The Tennessee Secretary of State and Historical Election Data
Current Official: Tre Hargett, Tennessee’s 37th Secretary of State, serving since 2009. He was re-elected in 2025 by the Tennessee General Assembly (not by popular vote).
The Secretary of State’s office is a vital resource for election statistics and historical election results. Their website provides an extensive archive including detailed historical election outcomes dating back to August 1994, voter turnout statistics dating back to August 1994, and voter registration statistics dating back to 1991.
This data allows for tracking election trends and the evolution of voter turnout over decades, crucial for understanding the state’s political shifts.
Secretary of State
Tre Hargett
Guardian of Election Records
(Visual representation of Secretary of State Tre Hargett
was described but not provided in media.)
Looking Ahead: The 2026 Elections
The electoral calendar in Tennessee remains active, with significant contests scheduled for 2026.
2026 State and County Primary Election:
Date: May 5, 2026.
Focus: Primary elections for state judicial offices and applicable county offices.
2026 Primary and General Election:
Date: August 6, 2026.
Focus: Primary elections for Governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, Tennessee Senate (odd-numbered districts), Tennessee House, and Republican and Democratic State Executive Committees. General elections for vacant state judicial and county offices.
- 2026 State and Federal General Election: Date: November 3, 2026.
Focus: General elections for Governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, Tennessee Senate (odd-numbered districts), and Tennessee House, alongside various municipal elections.
These upcoming elections are expected to bring new election news and continue to define election trends in Tennessee.
2026 Election Calendar
Key Dates & Focus
(Visual representation of 2026 Election Calendar
was described but not provided in media.)
Conclusion
Tennessee’s recent electoral history, including the 2025 special election, the 2024 Presidential Election, and the 2022 midterms, reveals a consistent Republican lean, though with notable pockets of Democratic resilience. The victories of Matt Van Epps and Donald Trump, along with Governor Bill Lee’s re-election, highlight prevailing election trends.
As Tennessee voters look towards the 2026 elections, the political landscape remains dynamic. Access to historical election results and statistics from the Secretary of State is crucial for understanding these shifts and promoting informed participation in democracy. Staying engaged with election news and understanding the implications of Tennessee election results is paramount for all citizens.
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