Recent intelligence assessments indicate Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is actively working to destabilize Bangladesh and use its territory for anti-India operations. This has raised concerns within India about a potential “three-front war” scenario, in addition to existing threats from Pakistan and China. The situation is complicated by internal political changes in Bangladesh and regional influences.
ISI’s Covert Operations in Bangladesh: A Strategic Challenge
Following political changes in Bangladesh in 2024, Indian intelligence agencies have noted an increase in ISI activities aimed at exploiting the altered political landscape, fostering anti-India sentiment, and cultivating radical groups. The “Dhaka Cell,” reportedly established by the ISI within the Pakistan High Commission in Bangladesh, is central to these alleged efforts. This cell is believed to oversee the grooming of terrorists and radicals with an India-specific agenda.
The “Dhaka Cell” is reportedly staffed by senior Pakistani intelligence and military officers (brigadiers, colonels, majors from ISI, Pakistan Air Force, and Navy). Its objectives include enhancing espionage against India and orchestrating anti-Indian operations from Bangladesh. Alleged operations include narcotics trafficking and terror financing, in collaboration with underworld figures, to fund global jihadist proxies and destabilize India. Terrorist training camps are reportedly established in remote Bangladeshi districts like Bandarban, Brahmanbarbaria, and Sylhet, training recruits (including Rohingya youths and members of extremist organizations) in improvised explosive device fabrication, guerrilla tactics, and border infiltration for anti-India operations.
Groups Allegedly Supported by the ISI for Anti-India Operations
The ISI allegedly leverages various extremist organizations and vulnerable populations for its anti-India agenda, including banned militant groups and segments of the Rohingya community.
Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT)
Also known as Ansar al-Islam Bangladesh, this banned militant terrorist organization is linked to Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). Intelligence reports suggest ISI support for ABT, particularly after recent political shifts in Bangladesh. The group is reportedly involved in recruiting and radicalizing youth, establishing sleeper cells, and collaborating with Pakistan-based groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) to plan attacks in India’s northeastern states, specifically targeting the Siliguri Corridor.
Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT)
An international pan-Islamist organization advocating for a global Islamic caliphate. Despite publicly disavowing violence, its ideology is considered a conduit for radicalization. Banned in many countries, including India, HuT operatives are reportedly trained and deployed by the ISI to infiltrate India and Bangladesh. The group has intensified its anti-India propaganda and its members have been apprehended in India for violent acts and secret training.
Rohingya Militants
Reports indicate ISI involvement in training Rohingya Muslims for anti-India operations. The ISI allegedly funds Rohingya Muslim training through outfits like Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) to push them into India for terror activities, as part of Pakistan’s strategy to destabilize India through cross-border terrorism. Radical Islamist groups like Al-Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba are also reported to have infiltrated Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh for recruitment.
The Dynamics of Anti-India Propaganda
The ISI employs a sophisticated propaganda machinery to sow discord, incite anti-India sentiment, and exploit unrest in Bangladesh.
Social Media and Digital Networks
ISI-backed social media handles reportedly spread disinformation, propagating fake narratives to incite anti-India sentiment after significant political events in Bangladesh, portraying India as a protector of ousted leaders.
Media Outlets
Pakistan’s digital network and certain Pakistan-funded media outlets allegedly publish anti-India articles, depicting India as aligned with specific political factions.
Inciting Fury
The ISI is accused of inciting anti-India fury by presenting India as interfering with Bangladesh’s electoral process and protecting ousted leaders, aiming to gain international attention and disrupt elections.
The Impact of ISI-Backed Infiltration Attempts
ISI-backed infiltration attempts across the 4,096.7 km India-Bangladesh border pose a multifaceted threat to India’s security, demographic balance, and socio-economic stability.
Security
Terrorist infiltration is a paramount concern. The ISI allegedly trains terrorists in Bangladesh for infiltration into India via low-visibility routes, riverine gaps, and forest cover in states like Assam, Tripura, and West Bengal. These elements are reportedly directed to other parts of India to increase instability and insurgency, with major infiltration drives planned via West Bengal, activating existing networks.
Demographic and Socio-economic
Plots to push large numbers of illegal immigrants (Bangladeshis and Rohingyas) into India are warned of, aiming to overwhelm the Indian system and enforce demographic changes in West Bengal and northeastern states. ISI-backed groups reportedly exploit financially distressed individuals with financial benefits, trapping them into terror outfits after training. Cross-border criminal activities, including fake Indian currency circulation and drug trafficking, are linked to these networks.
Political and Strategic
Border states like West Bengal are targeted for destabilization, with specific districts identified as active areas for terror groups. The expansion of ISI’s footprint in Bangladesh is seen as part of Pakistan’s hybrid and proxy warfare strategy to destabilize both Bangladesh and India, aiming to “bleed India with a thousand cuts.”
Strategic Implications: A Third Front War India Must Prepare For
India’s strategic planners have traditionally focused on a two-front war with China and Pakistan. However, recent geopolitical shifts suggest India may need to consider its border with Bangladesh as an emerging “front” for heightened security concerns.
The Third Front War India: A Complex Reality
The removal of the pro-India Awami League government in August 2024 is seen as a strategic shock, leading to political instability in Bangladesh, a rise of Islamist forces, and increased external influence from China and Pakistan. Pakistan is reportedly increasing engagement with Bangladesh, and there are concerns its intelligence may exploit Bangladeshi soil to support insurgents in India’s northeast. China is also deepening its economic and political penetration. The interim Bangladeshi government’s perceived inability to counter radical Islamist elements has allowed extremist groups to regroup, posing a cross-border terror threat to India.
Challenges of a Multi-Front Conflict
A multi-front conflict, even if the third front (Bangladesh) is primarily a zone of heightened security concerns, would present India with unprecedented challenges.
- Logistics: Immense strain requiring extensive force dispersion and pushing supply lines to their limits across widely separated Western, Northern, and Eastern fronts.
- Air Superiority: Indian Air Force would face a formidable challenge.
- Naval Security: Indian Navy would have to manage security in the Arabian Sea (against Pakistan) and the Bay of Bengal (potentially against China-Bangladesh cooperation).
- Economic Impact: Severe consequences, including increased military expenditures and trade disruptions.
Conclusion
Intelligence reports detailing Pakistan ISI’s alleged involvement in India-Bangladesh issues, with the intent to create a “third front war India” must confront, highlight a complex and escalating security challenge for New Delhi. While direct military aggression from Bangladesh is unlikely, the potential for its territory to be exploited by adversarial forces creates a profound strategic dilemma. India’s multi-pronged approach, including robust diplomacy, military modernization, and strategic partnerships, is crucial to mitigate these risks. Preventing Bangladesh from becoming an adversarial front requires sustained engagement and proactive measures to counter external influences and stabilize the region.
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